A plague at a feast
The core of Ronfeldt’s research involves the concept of the “nexus-state,” a new networked state entity enabled primarily by technology and networks. While many tech boosters see technology as a primarily liberating force that empowers individuals and groups, Ronfeldt argues convincingly that there is an equal potential for centralization of power. Centralized control of information can lead to the construction of a systematic apparatus of control that uses information collected on the populace to keep them in check. In a more decentralized system, the state becomes the arbiter that sets the protocol that defines a complicated set of networks, actors, and relationships.
If we are to take Ronfeldt’s speculative idea on its own terms, we must go beyond the simplistic web 2.0 slogan that “information is power.” Rather, the problem lies in transforming certain kinds of information into power. There is a large disparity between the “soft power” represented by the global networks, social media groups, and non-governmental organizations and the critical and overwhelming mass needed to contest political power, especially when faced with a force that holds an overwhelming military advantage. All of the hype about the Iranian “twitter revolution” placed a naïve faith in the ability of technology to overcome the loyal security forces of an authoritarian state. Twitter, in the end, could not overcome the truncheon, gun, and bayonet.
The interplay of what Thucydides called ”fear, honor, and interest” has been a feature of conflict since the beginning of organized human civilization. The problem is that theorists have only focused on “interest” while brushing aside “fear and honor.”
